Friday, July 11, 2008

Friday is For Politics III


Obama continues to hold a lead in the national polls, and continues to do well in state polls as well. There has only been a slight tightening in the race in the last month.


The Hotline Eletoral College Mapo this week confirms an early Obama lead, with Obama at 282 and MCain at 245. The Political insider has a summary of all of the major electoral college predicters--all of which show an Obama lead:

Chuck Todd says that while the presidential race remains close, Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 210 to 189 lead over Sen. John McCain, with 139 electoral votes in the toss-up column.

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42 votes)

Base McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)

Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (139 votes)

Larry Sabato notes that an exercise like this "has to assume that the election will be basically competitive, let's say with the winner receiving 52 percent or less of the two-party vote (with all third party votes excluded from the calculation). If one candidate's proportion of the vote climbs above 52 percent, then virtually all the swing states will move in his direction, coloring the toss-up white states either Blue or Red."

Solid Obama: WA, CA, IL, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, ME, DC, HI (183 electoral votes)

Likely Obama: OR, MN (17 electoral votes)Lean Obama: IA, NM (12 electoral votes) Solid McCain: ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, IN, KY, WV, TN, AL, SC (144 electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, GA, MS, MT, ND (30 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: FL, MO, NC (53 electoral votes)

Toss Up: CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI (99 electoral votes)

Electoral-Vote.com -- which uses the latest polling data to color the map -- shows Obama leading McCain, 320 to 218.

John Zogby also sees the electoral vote race tilting towards Obama, 273 to 160, with 105 still too close to call.

Election Projection has Obama leading McCain, 306 to 232.

Five Thirty Eight has Obama ahead of McCain, 313 to 225.



Read it all here.

Finally, be sure to read this great profile of my good friend Governor Janet Napolitano who should be on any Obama short list for Vice President.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com
susan