Friday is For Politics III
Obama continues to hold a lead in the national polls, and continues to do well in state polls as well. There has only been a slight tightening in the race in the last month.
The Hotline Eletoral College Mapo this week confirms an early Obama lead, with Obama at 282 and MCain at 245. The Political insider has a summary of all of the major electoral college predicters--all of which show an Obama lead:
Chuck Todd says that while the presidential race remains close, Sen. Barack Obama has opened up a 210 to 189 lead over Sen. John McCain, with 139 electoral votes in the toss-up column.
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT, WA (168 electoral votes)Lean Obama: NJ, MN, OR, WI (42 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (136 votes)Lean McCain: AK, GA, IN, MT, NC, ND, SD (53 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, MO, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA (139 votes)
Larry Sabato notes that an exercise like this "has to assume that the election will be basically competitive, let's say with the winner receiving 52 percent or less of the two-party vote (with all third party votes excluded from the calculation). If one candidate's proportion of the vote climbs above 52 percent, then virtually all the swing states will move in his direction, coloring the toss-up white states either Blue or Red."
Solid Obama: WA, CA, IL, MD, NY, VT, RI, MA, CT, NJ, DE, ME, DC, HI (183 electoral votes)
Likely Obama: OR, MN (17 electoral votes)Lean Obama: IA, NM (12 electoral votes) Solid McCain: ID, UT, AZ, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, AR, IN, KY, WV, TN, AL, SC (144 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, GA, MS, MT, ND (30 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: FL, MO, NC (53 electoral votes)
Toss Up: CO, MI, NH, NV, OH, PA, VA, WI (99 electoral votes)
Electoral-Vote.com -- which uses the latest polling data to color the map -- shows Obama leading McCain, 320 to 218.
John Zogby also sees the electoral vote race tilting towards Obama, 273 to 160, with 105 still too close to call.
Election Projection has Obama leading McCain, 306 to 232.
Five Thirty Eight has Obama ahead of McCain, 313 to 225.
Read it all here.
Finally, be sure to read this great profile of my good friend Governor Janet Napolitano who should be on any Obama short list for Vice President.